Variability and long‐term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review

The Australian monsoon delivers seasonal rain across a vast area of the continent stretching from far northern tropics to semi-arid regions. This article provides review advances in rainfall (AUMR) research and supporting analysis AUMR variability, observed trends, future projections. displays high degree interannual variability with standard deviation approximately 34% mean. is mostly driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although sea surface temperature anomalies tropical Indian Ocean north Australia also play role. Decadal strongly linked Interdecadal Pacific (IPO), partially through IPO's impact on strength position Walker Circulation South Convergence Zone. exhibits century-long positive trend, which large (approximately 20 mm per decade) statistically significant over northwest Australia. cause trend still debated. Future changes next century remain uncertain due low climate model agreement sign change. Recommendations improve understanding confidence projections are provided. includes improving representation atmospheric convective processes models, further explaining mechanisms responsible for Clarifying change would aid creating more sustainable agricultural systems increasing reliability predictions categorized under: Paleoclimates Current Trends > Modern Climate Change